India's GDP estimated to grow by 7.2 % in 2009-10

India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to grow by 7.2 per cent in 2009-10 as compared to the growth rate of 6.7 per cent achieved in 2008-09, despite a slight decline in the growth of the agriculture sector, data released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) said today.

In its Advance Estimates of National Income for 2009-10, the CSO said the GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices was likely to attain a level of Rs 44,53,064 crore in 2009-10 as against the Quick Estimates of GDP for 2008-09 of Rs 41,54,973 crore, released on January 29, 2010.

The projected growth rate for the current financial year is lower than the estimate of 7.5 per cent made by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on January 29 on the basis of the encouraging second quarter growth of 7.9 per cent. The growth in the first half of 2009-10 has worked out to 7 per cent, which is impressive given the turmoil the world economy is going through.

A statement from the CSO said the growth rate of 7.2 per cent in 2009-10 would be due to the growth rates over 5 per cent in sectors such as mining & quarrying, manufacturing, electricty, gas and water supply, construction, trade, hotels, transport and communication, financing insurance, real estate and business services, and community, social and personal services.

It said the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector was likely to show a decline of 0.2 per cent in its GDP during 2009-10 as against the growth rate of 1.6 per cent in the previous year.

The statement said that, according to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in 2009-10, production of foodgrains and oilseeds is expected to decline by 8 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively, as compared to the previous agriculture year.

While production of cotton is expected to rise by 0.2 per cent, that of sugarcane is expected to decline by 11.8 per cent in 2009-10. Among the horticultural crops, production of fruits and vegetables is expected to increase by 2.5 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively, during the year 2009-10, it said.

According to the statement, the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) show that the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 8.3 per cent, 7.7 per cent and 6.1 per cent, respectively during April-November, 2009-10, as compared to the growth rates of 3.4 per cent, 4.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent in these sectors during the corresponding period of 2008-09.

It said the key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and steel had registered growth rates of 11 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively during April-December 2009-10, as against the corresponding growth rates of 6.6 per cent and 1.7 per cent, respectively in these items during the same period of 2008-09.

It said the estimated growth in GDP for the trade, hotels, transport and communication sectors during 2009-10 was placed at 8.3 per cent, mainly on account of growth during April-December, 2009-10 of 9.9 per cent (against 6.4 per cent in the same period of last year) in Railway net tonne kilometers and 7.6 per cent (against 9.7 per cent in the same period of last year) in Railway passenger kilometers, 5.1 per cent in cargo handled at major ports (against 3.4 per cent in April-December, 2008-09), 8.0 per cent in passengers handled in civil aviation (against (-)6.3 per cent in April-November, 2008-09), and 46.1 per cent in stock of telephone connections at the end of December, 2009 over the stock at the end of December, 2008 (against 42.1 per cent in the corresponding period of previous year).

The statement said the sales of commercial vehicles witnessed an increase of 22.32 per cent (against a fall of 15.5 per cent in April-December, 2008-09) and air cargo handled increased by 1.0 per cent (against the growth of 2.5 per cent in April-December, 2008-09), during April – December, 2009-10.

The financing, insurance, real estate and business services sector is expected to show a growth rate of 9.9 per cent during 2009-10, on account of 18.4 per cent growth in aggregate deposits and 10.0 per cent growth in bank credit during November 2009 to November 2010 (against the respective growth rates of 20.0 per cent and 26.0 per cent in the corresponding period of previous year).

In the case of community, social and personal services sector, the growth during 2009-10 is estimated to be 8.2 per cent, mainly on account of increase in the revenue expenditure net of payments of central government by 20.5 per cent, it said.

The CSO said the net national income (NNI) at factor cost, also known as national income, at 2004-05 prices is likely to be Rs. 39,24,183 crore during 2009-10, as against the previous year's Quick Estimate of Rs. 36,72,192 crore. In terms of growth rates, the national income is expected to rise by 6.9 per cent during 2009-10 in comparison to the growth rate of 6.4 per cent in 2008-09.

The per capita income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2009-10 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 33,540 as compared to the Quick Estimate for the year 2008-09 of Rs. 31,821. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.4 per cent during 2009-10, as against the previous year's estimate of 5.0 per cent.

NNN